Are Polls for Dogs?

What’s on my mind? Climate change. Is it real? 

A highly esteemed Australian scientist I know and greatly respect says climate change is part of a normal cycle. Which it is, of course. But how long is the cycle? My friend isn’t a climate scientist, but nor am I. 

As I understand the issue, a pivotal part of the argument swirls around “weather” v. “climate.” The first is relatively short-term; the second, long-term. How my friend and others define those concepts, I don’t know. 

The second argument focuses on the effect human activities have - or do not have - on the atmosphere. The third points to the inconsistency of relative short-term written meteorological records. 

I’m not qualified to address any of those points.

I believe North America is in a rapidly accelerating time of colder winters and hotter summers. News reports suggest greater flooding, more serious wildfires, and higher winds. In recent weeks, one Australian state experienced severe flooding and severe fires at the same time.

The north polar cap is rapidly melting. Some scientists say Antarctica has considerably more ice plunging into the sea each year than 40 years ago. However, other scientists say East Antarctica added five billion tons of ice each year from 1992 to 2017. The science on climate change is by no means settled.

My Australian friend referred to a recent Pew poll that only 7% of Australians are concerned about climate change - the unspoken words being “if it exists at all.” 

I know enough to understand poll answers depend how poll questions are phrased.

So I asked Google: “Percentage of Canadian adults concerned about climate change?” Up popped a 1986 Ipsos result that “two-thirds (63%) feel desperately concerned that if drastic action not taken right now, the world may not last much longer than another couple of generations.”

That was the first hit to come up; not wanting to cherry-pick or bias the result, I decided to go with first hits only. Because of the parameters I’d set myself, I didn’t search for something more current.

I then asked Google the same question about Americans. The first hit came from a February, 2018 journal of the American Psychological Association, which stated: “71% of Americans … think global warming is happening, according to a Yale Program on Climate Change Communication survey. While 47 percent say they are “very” or “extremely” sure of it, 13 percent do not believe it is happening and the rest are unsure.”

(Those numbers don’t add up, but that was what the first hit reported.)

I then asked the question about Australians: The first hit I got was a summary of a Lowy Institute Poll headed: “Australians’ support for climate action at its highest level in a decade.” (June, 2018) 

The poll’s summary states: “59% of respondents agreed with the statement that: “Climate change is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs … This represents an increase of 5 percentage points from 2017, and a consistent increase in support for this statement over the past six years. It suggests that support for climate action in Australia is bouncing back towards its high point of 68% in the first set of Lowy Polls in 2006.”

Breaking with my “first hit” methodology, I ran through the Google headers in response to my question about Australians’ perspective. Story after story after story (even a recent Pew poll) said much the same.

Don’t tell me polls are for dogs. At what point does “weather” become “climate change”? Climate once happened over eons. It’s now been happening over – what? The past 30 years? The past 50? The past 100? 

I don’t know, but what I’ve seen and felt and read over the past decade is that whatever’s happening, it’s doing so faster than we anticipated. I fear we may have passed the point of no return. Tell your children and grandchildren you love them. Hug them tightly. And hope for the best.

© Nicole Parton, 2019